A comparative analysis of the relationship between the risk of terrorism and the restrictions of the opposition in national elections
https://doi.org/10.31660/1993-1824-2022-4-67-88
Abstract
The article considers the issue of a comparative analysis of the relationship between the rise of terrorism and the existing restrictions on the opposition in national elections. It gives an analysis of the influence of the types of political regimes, limited and unrestricted types of elections, as well as various indicators of the stability of states and their socio-economic development. The author of the article uses descriptive statistics analysis and develops seven negative binomial regression models that take into account choices in more than 150 countries between 1970 and 2015. The result proves that the government's holding of unrestricted elections is associated with an increase in terrorist violence in non-democratic countries, but with a decrease in terrorism in democratic ones. At the same time, restricting the participation of opposition groups in elections is associated with a decrease in the level of terrorist violence in non-democracies, but with an increase in the level of terrorism in democracies. In general, the data obtained indicate a strong and significant relationship between the types of national elections and the risk of terrorism in countries with different political regimes.
About the Author
A. V. Novikov
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Andrey V. Novikov
Department of Mathematical Methods in Economics
Moscow
References
1. Korotayev, A., Vas'kin, I., & Romanov, D. (2019). Democracy and terrorism: a reanalysis. Russian sociological review, 18(3), pp. 9-48. (In Russian). DOI: 10.17323/1728-192x-2019-3-9-48
2. Proshin, D. V. (2014). Terrorizm v kontekste demokraticheskih tranzitov. Gileya : nauchnyy vestnik, (90), pp. 342-348. (In Russian).
3. Davenport, K. (1998). Liberalizing Event or Lethal Episode?: An Empirical Assessment of How National Elections Affect the Suppression of Political and Civil Liberties. Social Science Quarterly, 79(2), pp. 321-340. (In English).
4. Heger, L. L. (2015). Votes and violence: Pursuing terrorism while navigating politics. Journal of Peace Research, 52(1), pp. 32-45. (In English). DOI: 10.1177/0022343314552984
5. Brancati, D., & Snyder, J. L. (2011). Rushing to the Polls: The Causes of Premature Post-Conflict Elections. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 55(3), pp. 469-492. (In English). DOI: 10.1177/0022002711400863
6. Newman, L. S. (2013). Do Terrorist Attacks Increase Closer to Elections? Terrorism and Political Violence, 25(1), pp. 8-28. (In English). DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2013.733247
7. Stedman, S. J. (1997). Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes. International Security, 22(2), pp. 5-53. (In English).
8. Li, Q. (2005). Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents? Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49(2), 278-297. (In English). DOI: 10.1177/0022002704272830
9. Manukyan, A. R. (2018). Counteraction to terrorism in the conditions of the developed democracy. Sotsial'no-politicheskie nauki, (2), pp. 180-182. (In Russian).
10. Aksoy, D. (2014). Elections and the Timing of Terrorist Attacks. Journal of Politics, 76(4), рр. 899-913. (In English). DOI: 10.1017/S0022381614000504
11. Young, J. K., & Dugan, L. (2011). Veto players and terror. Journal of Peace Research, 48(1), p. 19. (In English). DOI: 10.1177/0022343310386269
12. Johnmakhmadov, F. F. (2020). Political terrorism as the main method of activity of the terrorist and extremist organization the Islamic Renaissance Party. Proceedings of the institute of philosophy, political science and law named after A. Bahovaddinov of the national academy of sciences of Tajikistan, (2), pp. 160-166. (In Russian).
13. Aksoy, D., & Carter, D. B. (2014). Electoral Institutions and the Emergence of Terrorist Groups. British Journal of Political Science, 44(1), pp. 181-204. (In English). DOI: 10.1017/S0007123412000282
14. Foster, D. M., Braithwaite, A., & Sobek, D. A. (2013). There Can Be No Compromise: Institutional Inclusiveness, Fractionalization, and Domestic Terrorism. British Journal of Political Science, 43(3), pp. 541-557. (In English). DOI: 10.1017/S0007123412000464
15. Conrad, C. R., Conrad, J., & Young, J. K. (2014). Tyrants and Terrorism: Why Some Autocrats Are Terrorized While Others Are Not. International Studies Quarterly, 58(3), pp. 539-549. (In English). DOI: 10.1111/isqu.12120
16. Wilson, M. K., & Piazza, J. A. (2013). Autocracies and Terrorism: Conditioning Effect of Authoritarian Regime Type on Terrorist Attacks. American Journal of Political Sciences, 57(4), pp. 941-955. (In English). DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12028
17. Chenoweth, E. (2013). Terrorism and Democracy. Annual Review of Political Science, 16, pp. 355-378. (In English). DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-221825
18. Walter, B. F. (2009). Bargaining Failures and Civil War. Annual Review of Political Science, 12, pp. 243-261. (In English). DOI: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.101405.135301
19. Moore, W. H. (1998). Repression and Dissent: Substitution, Context, and Timing. American Journal of Political Sciences, 42(3), pp. 851-873. (In English). DOI: 10.2307/2991732
20. Gorovits, D. (2007). Structure and strategy of ethnic conflict. Vlast', (6), pp. 35-41. (In Russian).
21. Mesquita, E. B. (2005). The Quality of Terror. American Journal of Political Sciences, 49(3), pp. 515-530. (In English). DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00139.x
22. Zhuravel, V. P. (2017). The results of the parliamentary elections and impact of terrorism on the frenchvoters. Elections in France – 2017: Results and Perspectives, 347, pp. 45-50.
23. Kolotkov, M. B. (2017). Terrorizm i gosudarstvo: tekhnologiya konflikta. Moscow, Yurlitinform Publ., 183 p. (In Russian).
24. National Elections Across Democracy and Autocracy. (In English). Available at: https://nelda.co/#
25. Piazza, J. A. (2010). Terrorism and party systems in the States of India. Security Studies, 19(1), pp. 99-123. (In English). DOI: 10.1080/09636410903546673
26. Altier, M. B., Martin, S., & Weinberg, L. B. (2013). Introduction to a Special Issue on Violence, Elections, and Party Politics. Terrorism and Political Violence, 25(1), pp. 1-7. (In English). DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2013.733241
27. Dzharmokova, Zh. A. (2013). Terrorism as channel of translation of political interests. Kant, (3(9)), pp. 148-150. (In Russian).
28. Bourne, A. K. (2012). Democratization and illegalization of political parties in Europe. Democratization, 19(1), pp. 1-21. (In English). DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2011.626118
29. Basedau, M., Bogaards, M., Hartmann, Ch., & Niesen, P. (2007). Ethnic Party Bans in Africa: A Research Agenda. German Law Journal, 8(6), pp. 617-634. (In English). DOI: 10.1017/S2071832200005812
30. Piazza, J. A. (2011). Poverty, minority economic discrimination, and domestic terrorism. Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), pp. 339-353. (In English). DOI: 10.1177/0022343310397404
31. Global Terrorism Database. (In English). Available at: https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/
32. Calle, L., & Sanchez-Cuenca, I. (2012). Rebels without a Territory: An Analysis of Non-territorial Conflicts in the World, 1970-1997. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 56(4), pp. 580-603. (In English). DOI: 10.1177/0022002711431800
33. Enders, W., Sandler, T., & Gaibulloev, Kh. (2011). Domestic versus transnational terrorism: Data, decomposition, and dynamics. Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), рp. 319-337. (In English). DOI: 10.1177/0022343311398926
34. Egorova, E. V., & Radioniva, M. V. (2019). Application of the Poisson model for analysis of panel data. International Journal of Applied Sciences and Technology Integral, (3), pp. 350-361. (In Russian).
35. Piazza, J. A. (2008). Incubators of Terror: Do Failed and Failing States Promote Transnational Terrorism? International Studies Quarterly, 52(3), pp. 469-488. (In English). DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00511.x
36. Cheybub, J. A., Gandhi, J., & Vreeland, J. R. (2010). Democracy and dictatorship revisited. Public Choice, 143(1), pp. 67-101. (In English). DOI: 10.1007/s11127-009-9491-2
37. Gurr, T. R. (1970). Why people Rebel. New York, Routledge, 440 p. (In English).
38. Harbom, L., & Wallensteen, P. (2010). Armed Conflicts, 1946-2009. Journal of Peace Research, 47(4), pp. 501-509. (In English). DOI: 10.1177/0022343310376887
39. Findlay, M. G., & Young, J. K. (2012). Terrorism and Civil War: A Spatial and Temporal Approach to a Conceptual Problem. Perspectives on Politics, 10(2), pp. 285-305. (In English). DOI: 10.1017/S1537592712000679
Review
For citations:
Novikov A.V. A comparative analysis of the relationship between the risk of terrorism and the restrictions of the opposition in national elections. Proceedings from higher educational institutions. Sociology. Economics. Politics. 2022;15(4):67-88. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31660/1993-1824-2022-4-67-88
Views:
25
Email this article 